SARS-CoV-2 diversity and transmission on a university campus across two academic years during the pandemic (preprint)

Institutions of higher education (IHEs) have been a focus of SARS-CoV-2 transmission studies but there is limited information on how viral diversity and transmission at IHEs changed as the pandemic progressed. Here we analyze 3606 viral genomes from unique COVID-19 episodes collected at a public university in Seattle, Washington (WA) from September 2020 to September 2022. Across the study period, we found evidence of frequent viral transmission among university affiliates with 60% (n=2153) of viral genomes from campus specimens genetically identical to at least one other campus specimen. Moreover, viruses from students were observed in transmission clusters at a higher frequency than in the overall dataset while viruses from symptomatic infections were observed in transmission clusters at a lower frequency. Though only a small percentage of community viruses were identified as possible descendants of viruses isolated in university study specimens, phylodynamic modelling suggested a high rate of transmission events from campus into the local community, particularly during the 2021-2022 academic year. We conclude that viral transmission was common within the university population throughout the study period but that not all university affiliates were equally likely to be involved. In addition, the transmission rate from campus into the surrounding community may have increased during the second year of the study, possibly due to return to in-person instruction.

Associations between SARS-CoV-2 variants and risk of COVID-19 hospitalization among confirmed cases in Washington State: a retrospective cohort study (preprint)

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic is now dominated by variant lineages; the resulting impact on disease severity remains unclear. Using a retrospective cohort study, we assessed the risk of hospitalization following infection with nine variants of concern or interest (VOC/VOI). MethodsOur study includes individuals with positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR in the Washington Disease Reporting System and with available viral genome data, from December 1, 2020 to July 30, 2021. The main analysis was restricted to cases with specimens collected through sentinel surveillance. Using a Cox proportional hazards model with mixed effects, we estimated hazard ratios (HR) for the risk of hospitalization following infection with a VOC/VOI, adjusting for age, sex, and vaccination status. FindingsOf the 27,814 cases, 23,170 (83.3%) were sequenced through sentinel surveillance, of which 726 (3.1%) were hospitalized due to COVID-19. Higher hospitalization risk was found for infections with Gamma (HR 3.17, 95% CI 2.15-4.67), Beta (HR: 2.97, 95% CI 1.65-5.35), Delta (HR: 2.30, 95% CI 1.69-3.15), and Alpha (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.26-1.99) compared to infections with an ancestral lineage. Following VOC infection, unvaccinated patients show a similar higher hospitalization risk, while vaccinated patients show no significant difference in risk, both when compared to unvaccinated, ancestral lineage cases. InterpretationInfection with a VOC results in a higher hospitalization risk, with an active vaccination attenuating that risk. Our findings support promoting hospital preparedness, vaccination, and robust genomic surveillance.

SARS-CoV-2 Epidemiology on a Public University Campus in Washington State (preprint)

BackgroundTesting programs have been utilized as part of SARS-CoV-2 mitigation strategies on university campuses, and it is not known which strategies successfully identify cases and contain outbreaks. ObjectiveEvaluation of a testing program to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission at a large university. DesignProspective longitudinal study using remote contactless enrollment, daily mobile symptom and exposure tracking, and self-swab sample collection. Individuals were tested if the participant was (1) exposed to a known case, developed new symptoms, or reported high-risk behavior, (2) a member of a group experiencing an outbreak, or (3) at baseline upon enrollment. SettingAn urban, public university during Autumn quarter of 2020 ParticipantsStudents, staff, and faculty. MeasurementsSARS-CoV-2 PCR testing was conducted, and viral genome sequencing was performed. ResultsWe enrolled 16,476 individuals, performed 29,783 SARS-CoV-2 tests, and detected 236 infections. Greek community affiliation was the strongest risk factor for testing positive. 75.0% of positive cases reported at least one of the following: symptoms (60.8%), exposure (34.7%), or high-risk behaviors (21.5%). 88.1% of viral genomes (52/59) sequenced from Greek-affiliated students were genetically identical to at least one other genome detected, indicative of rapid SARS-CoV-2 spread within this group, compared to 37.9% (11/29) of genomes from non-Greek students and employees. LimitationsObservational study. ConclusionIn a setting of limited resources during a pandemic, we prioritized testing of individuals with symptoms and high-risk exposure during outbreaks. Rapid spread of SARS- CoV-2 occurred within outbreaks without evidence of further spread to the surrounding community. A testing program focused on high-risk populations may be effective as part of a comprehensive university-wide mitigation strategy to control the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

Viral genome sequencing places White House COVID-19 outbreak into phylogenetic context (preprint)

In October 2020, an outbreak of at least 50 COVID-19 cases was reported surrounding individuals employed at or visiting the White House. Here, we applied genomic epidemiology to investigate the origins of this outbreak. We enrolled two individuals with exposures linked to the White House COVID-19 outbreak into an IRB-approved research study and sequenced their SARS-CoV-2 infections. We find these viral sequences are highly genetically similar to each other, but are distinct from over 160,000 publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genomes, possessing 5 nucleotide mutations that differentiate this lineage from all other circulating lineages sequenced to date. We estimate this lineage has a common ancestor in the USA in April or May 2020, but its whereabouts for the past 5 to 6 months are not clear. Looking forwards, sequencing of additional community SARS-CoV-2 infections collected in the USA prior to October 2020 may reveal linked infections and shed light on its geographic ancestry. In sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 infections collected after October 2020, the relative rarity of this constellation of mutations may make it possible to identify infections that likely descend from the White House COVID-19 outbreak.

Discovery of five HIV nucleoside analog reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) as potent inhibitors against the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) of SARS-CoV and 2019-nCoV (preprint)

The outbreak of SARS in 2002-2003 caused by SARS-CoV, and the pandemic of COVID-19 in 2020 caused by 2019-nCoV (SARS-CoV-2), have threatened human health globally and raised the urgency to develop effective antivirals against the viruses. In this study, we expressed and purified the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) nsp12 of SARS-CoV and developed a primer extension assay for the evaluation of nsp12 activity. We found that nsp12 could efficiently extend single-stranded RNA, while having low activity towards double-stranded RNA. Nsp12 required a catalytic metal (Mg2+ or Mn2+) for polymerase activity and the activity was also K+-dependent, while Na+ promoted pyrophosphorylation, the reverse process of polymerization. To identify antivirals against nsp12, a competitive assay was developed containing 4 natural rNTPs and a nucleotide analog, and the inhibitory effects of 24 FDA-approved nucleotide analogs were evaluated in their corresponding active triphosphate forms. Ten of the analogs, including 2 HIV NRTIs, could inhibit the RNA extension of nsp12 by more than 40%. The 10 hits were verified which showed dose-dependent inhibition. In addition, the 24 nucleotide analogs were screened on SARS-CoV primase nsp8 which revealed stavudine and remdesivir were specific inhibitors to nsp12. Furthermore, the 2 HIV NRTIs were evaluated on 2019-nCoV nsp12 which showed inhibition as well. Then we expanded the evaluation to all 8 FDA-approved HIV NRTIs and discovered 5 of them, tenofovir, stavudine, abacavir, zidovudine and zalcitabine, could inhibit the RNA extension by nsp12 of SARS-CoV and 2019-nCoV. In conclusion, 5 FDA-approved HIV NRTIs inhibited the RNA extension by nsp12 and were promising candidates for the treatment of SARS and COVID-19.

Viral genomes reveal patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Washington State (preprint)

The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 has gravely impacted societies around the world. Outbreaks in different parts of the globe are shaped by repeated introductions of new lineages and subsequent local transmission of those lineages. Here, we sequenced 3940 SARS-CoV-2 viral genomes from Washington State to characterize how the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Washington State (USA) was shaped by differences in timing of mitigation strategies across counties, as well as by repeated introductions of viral lineages into the state. Additionally, we show that the increase in frequency of a potentially more transmissible viral variant (614G) over time can potentially be explained by regional mobility differences and multiple introductions of 614G, but not the other variant (614D) into the state. At an individual level, we see evidence of higher viral loads in patients infected with the 614G variant. However, using clinical records data, we do not find any evidence that the 614G variant impacts clinical severity or patient outcomes. Overall, this suggests that at least to date, the behavior of individuals has been more important in shaping the course of the pandemic than changes in the virus.

Preliminary support for a 'dry swab, extraction free' protocol for SARS-CoV-2 testing via RT-qPCR (preprint)

The urgent need for massively scaled clinical or surveillance testing for SARS-CoV-2 has necessitated a reconsideration of the methods by which respiratory samples are collected, transported, processed and tested. Conventional testing for SARS-CoV-2 involves collection of a clinical specimen with a nasopharyngeal swab, storage of the swab during transport in universal transport medium (UTM), extraction of RNA, and quantitative reverse transcription PCR (RT-qPCR). As testing has scaled across the world, supply chain challenges have emerged across this entire workflow. Here we sought to evaluate how eliminating the UTM storage and RNA extraction steps would impact the results of molecular testing. Using paired mid-turbinate swabs self-collected by 11 individuals with previously established SARS-CoV-2 positivity, we performed a comparison of conventional (swab [->] UTM [->] RNA extraction [->] RT-qPCR) vs. simplified (direct elution from dry swab [->] RT-qPCR) protocols. Our results suggest that dry swabs eluted directly into a simple buffered solution (TE) can support molecular detection of SARS-CoV-2 via endpoint RT-qPCR without substantially compromising sensitivity. Although further confirmation with a larger sample size and variation of other parameters is necessary, these results are encouraging for the possibility of a simplified workflow that could support massively scaled testing for COVID-19 control.

Type 2 and interferon inflammation strongly regulate SARS-CoV-2 related gene expression in the airway epithelium (preprint)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes vary from asymptomatic infection to death. This disparity may reflect different airway levels of the SARS-CoV-2 receptor, ACE2, and the spike protein activator, TMPRSS2. Here we explore the role of genetics and co-expression networks in regulating these genes in the airway, through the analysis of nasal airway transcriptome data from 695 children. We identify expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) for both ACE2 and TMPRSS2, that vary in frequency across world populations. Importantly, we find TMPRSS2 is part of a mucus secretory network, highly upregulated by T2 inflammation through the action of interleukin-13, and that interferon response to respiratory viruses highly upregulates ACE2 expression. Finally, we define airway responses to coronavirus infections in children, finding that these infections upregulate IL6 while also stimulating a more pronounced cytotoxic immune response relative to other respiratory viruses. Our results reveal mechanisms likely influencing SARS-CoV-2 infectivity and COVID-19 clinical outcomes.

Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Washington State (preprint)

Following its emergence in Wuhan, China, in late November or early December 2019, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has rapidly spread throughout the world. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic. Genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 strains allows for the reconstruction of transmission history connecting these infections. Here, we analyze 346 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from samples collected between 20 February and 15 March 2020 from infected patients in Washington State, USA. We found that the large majority of SARS-CoV-2 infections sampled during this time frame appeared to have derived from a single introduction event into the state in late January or early February 2020 and subsequent local spread, strongly suggesting cryptic spread of COVID-19 during the months of January and February 2020, before active community surveillance was implemented. We estimate a common ancestor of this outbreak clade as occurring between 18 January and 9 February 2020. From genomic data, we estimate an exponential doubling between 2.4 and 5.1 days. These results highlight the need for large-scale community surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 introductions and spread and the power of pathogen genomics to inform epidemiological understanding.

Effects of weather-related social distancing on city-scale transmission of respiratory viruses (preprint)

BACKGROUND: Unusually high snowfall in western Washington State in February 2019 led to widespread school and workplace closures. We assessed the impact of social distancing caused by this extreme weather event on the transmission of respiratory viruses. METHODS: Residual specimens from patients evaluated for acute respiratory illness at hospitals in the Seattle metropolitan area were screened for a panel of respiratory viruses. Transmission models were fit to each virus, with disruption of contact rates and care-seeking informed by data on local traffic volumes and hospital admissions. RESULTS: Disruption in contact patterns reduced effective contact rates during the intervention period by 16% to 95%, and cumulative disease incidence through the remainder of the season by 3% to 9%. Incidence reductions were greatest for viruses that were peaking when the disruption occurred and least for viruses in early epidemic phase. CONCLUSION: High-intensity, short-duration social distancing measures may substantially reduce total incidence in a respiratory virus epidemic if implemented near the epidemic peak.